# [24H] Ukraine Conducts Follow-On Deep Strikes on Russian Energy Sites After Pelican Debut

*Issued Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-20T22:16:38.178Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-21T22:16:38.178Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia (Moscow region and surrounding oblasts), Eastern and Central Ukraine, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differential, Diesel and gasoil cracks, European refined-product importers, Russian rail and pipeline logistics operators
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25690.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch further long-range drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries or petroleum depots, leveraging momentum from the reported debut of the Pelican ballistic missile and recent hits on the Moscow Refinery. Russian air defenses and rear-area commands will face heightened strain, pushing them to redeploy assets from frontline sectors and complicating offensive planning. Strategically, continued attacks reinforce a tit-for-tat infrastructure war, increasing Russian incentives to escalate strikes on Ukrainian energy and urban targets, and sustaining refined-product risk premia. Confirmation would be additional documented explosions or fires at Russian energy or logistics hubs; denial would be an unexpected lull in cross-border attacks coinciding with diplomatic pressure linked to the upcoming Trump–Zelensky meeting.

## Drivers

- Reports that Ukraine used its Pelican ballistic missile in deep strikes on Moscow region
- Ukrainian claim of destroying 30–40% of Russia’s refining capacity
- Emerging trend: Ukrainian deep-strike campaign on Russian energy hubs
- Sustained trend of mutual infrastructure targeting as a central coercive tool