# [24H] Additional Ukrainian Drone and Missile Raids on Moscow Region Expected Overnight

*Issued Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 4:16 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-20T16:16:32.129Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-21T16:16:32.129Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Moscow Region, Central Russia, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differentials, Russian domestic fuel prices, Insurance premiums for Russian energy infrastructure, Moscow-listed energy equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25662.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one more mass drone or cruise missile raid on the Moscow region in the next 24 hours, exploiting the demonstrated vulnerability of the Moscow Oil Refinery and Russian air defenses. Kyiv will aim to sustain psychological pressure on Russian elites during the post-election window and to keep Russian air defense assets tied down away from the front. This risks further damage to Russian fuel infrastructure and potential Russian retaliation on Ukrainian cities. Confirmation would come via Russian NOTAMs, flight disruptions, and local reports of UAV interceptions over Moscow; denial would be an explicit Ukrainian pause or absence of air defense activity around the capital despite current momentum.

## Drivers

- Largest Ukrainian drone barrage to date just hit the Moscow region
- Confirmed crippling of primary units at the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya
- Emerging trend of Ukrainian long-range strikes coercively targeting Moscow’s heartland