# [24H] Baghdad Condemnation of US Weapons Pullout from Iraq Likely Within 24 Hours

*Issued Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 4:16 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-19T16:16:33.990Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-20T16:16:33.990Z (20h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iraq, Jordan, Iran, Levant
**Affected Assets**: Iraqi security forces capabilities, US basing rights and overflight corridors, Iraqi political risk premiums
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25557.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

The Iraqi federal government or major parliamentary blocs are likely to issue strong public statements condemning or contesting Trump’s order to remove all U.S. weapons from Iraq by end‑September. Iraqi leaders will frame the move as an abandonment of shared security or a violation of existing agreements, while Shi’a political factions and militias will depict it as both a victory and a destabilizing vacuum. This will deepen Baghdad’s internal polarization over alignment with Washington versus Tehran. Confirmation would be official communiqués, emergency parliamentary sessions, or joint statements with Iran‑aligned factions; denial would be conspicuous silence or muted technical language from senior Iraqi officials.

## Drivers

- Active alert on Trump ordering US weapons pulled from Iraq and moved to Jordan
- Iraq’s dependence on U.S. equipment for parts of its counter‑terror and air defense posture
- Historical sensitivity in Iraqi politics to abrupt U.S. posture changes