# [7D] Ukraine Likely Expands Deep‑Strike Drone Campaign on Russian Energy and Air Bases

*Issued Friday, September 18, 2026 at 9:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-18T21:10:59.370Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-25T21:10:59.370Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Kursk Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Belgorod and Bryansk regions, Central and Eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and fuel depots, Russian military airbases, Urals crude export infrastructure, European energy market sentiment
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25444.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional long‑range drone strikes against Russian energy, refinery, or airbase targets beyond the Kursk nuclear plant hit and Rostov airport attack, seeking to degrade Russia’s strike enablers and psychological resilience. Russian border oblasts (Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov, Bryansk) will face recurring air‑defense activations and localized infrastructure damage, while Moscow escalates retaliatory missile barrages on Ukrainian cities and grids. Strategically, this tit‑for‑tat deepens the war’s strategic depth, risking miscalculation around nuclear, chemical, or major power infrastructure. Confirmation would be further Ukrainian‑claimed or Russian‑acknowledged strikes on refineries, airbases, or power facilities in Russia; denial would be a Ukrainian pause under Western pressure or visible running out of long‑range drone capacity.

## Drivers

- IAEA‑confirmed drone strike on Kursk nuclear plant cooling tower
- Attack destroying aircraft at Rostov airport
- Emerging trend: Ukraine’s deep‑strike drone campaign shifting into sustained energy/refinery war
- EUCOM emphasis on mutual deep‑strike escalation