# [7D] Saudi–European Relations to Strain as Riyadh Prioritizes Asia Over Europe in Oil Allocation

*Issued Friday, September 18, 2026 at 3:11 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-18T15:11:19.721Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-25T15:11:19.721Z (7d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: European Union, Saudi Arabia, Gulf Cooperation Council, Iraq
**Affected Assets**: Brent–Dubai spread, Saudi Aramco export contracts, European refining margins, EUR foreign exchange via energy-import bill, Iraqi crude export volumes and forward contracts
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25416.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, diplomatic friction between Saudi Arabia and key European states will intensify as Riyadh maintains its October crude cutoff to Europe while continuing or even expanding flows to Asian buyers. European leaders will privately and semi-publicly accuse Saudi Arabia of weaponizing energy, while Riyadh will frame the move as logistical necessity and market rebalancing amid Hormuz disruption. This divergence will complicate Western coordination on Iran and Yemen and may encourage Europe to accelerate alternative supply routes, including Iraqi and US crude. Confirmation would be sharp statements from EU energy ministers and leaks of tense discussions with Saudi officials; denial would be a swift, partial restoration of Saudi allocations to Europe.

## Drivers

- Saudi confirmation of zero crude supply to European refiners in October
- Macron’s repeated warnings that Europe faces a double choke on energy supply
- Macron’s backing of an Iraq–Europe pipeline concept as a diversification signal
- Existing European resentment over past OPEC+ production decisions