# [7D] Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Campaign to Expand Against Russian Energy and Logistics Nodes in 7 Days

*Issued Friday, September 18, 2026 at 3:11 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-18T15:11:19.721Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-25T15:11:19.721Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western and Southern Russia (Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, Belgorod, possibly Krasnodar), Ukraine, EU states near Russian borders (Poland, Baltics)
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and fuel depots, Rail logistics serving Russian forces in Ukraine, Global diesel and fuel oil markets, Insurance premiums for assets in western Russia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25413.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Ukraine is likely to broaden its deep-strike campaign to hit additional Russian energy, logistics, and drone-production nodes beyond Bryansk and Taganrog. Kyiv will seek to complicate Russian fuel supply to frontline units and degrade domestic UAV output, banking on Western tolerance for reciprocal Russian escalation. This will increase operational friction for Russian forces but also heighten risks to Ukrainian cities and European critical infrastructure through Russian hybrid retaliation. Confirmation would be geolocated strikes on refineries, depots, or energy distribution hubs inside Russia; denial would be a measurable lull in long-range Ukrainian sorties caused by resource or political constraints.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: Ukraine’s deep-strike drone and missile campaign shifting to Russian energy backbone
- Recent strikes on S-400s, ammo depots, and a major drone manufacturer
- Russian hybrid threat warnings from Macron and French infrastructure protection measures