# [24H] Brent and European Diesel Prices to Spike Further on Confirmed Saudi Cut and Hormuz Blockage

*Issued Friday, September 18, 2026 at 3:11 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-18T15:11:19.721Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-19T15:11:19.721Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Europe, United Kingdom, United States, Gulf exporters
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, European diesel futures (ICE Gasoil), European gasoline benchmarks, European refinery equities and bonds, Tanker day rates (Aframax, Suezmax)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25409.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude and European diesel benchmarks are likely to print new short-term highs as traders fully price in Saudi Arabia’s zero crude shipments to Europe in October and Macron’s statement that Hormuz is ‘basically blocked’. Physical refiners will scramble for alternative North Sea, US, West African, and Iraqi barrels, bidding up prompt cargoes and widening Brent–Dubai spreads. This will transmit into higher retail fuel prices, worsening inflation expectations and credit risk for European refiners and transport firms. Confirmation would be a further sharp upward move in Brent front-month and European diesel cracks; denial would be a surprise announcement of compensatory supply from other Gulf or US sources calming prices.

## Drivers

- Saudi confirmation of full halt of crude to Europe in October
- Macron’s repeated description of Hormuz as ‘basically blocked’ with worsening transit conditions
- Reports of fuel prices already hitting simultaneous highs in US, UK, and EU
- Industry signals of European refiners being forced into a supply scramble