# [7D] Ukrainian Deep-Strike Drone Campaign to Disable Additional Russian Refineries and Airfields

*Issued Friday, September 18, 2026 at 9:12 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-18T09:12:45.606Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-25T09:12:45.606Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Rostov Region, Russia, Krasnodar Krai, Tatarstan and Volga refineries, Occupied Ukrainian territories (retaliatory strikes), Ukraine proper
**Affected Assets**: Russian diesel and jet-fuel export volumes, Urals crude discount to Brent, European pipeline and seaborne product imports, Russian domestic fuel prices, Insurance premiums for facilities near the front and border
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25382.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct further long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries and military airfields beyond the Taneko and Yeisk hits, targeting high-value distillation units, fuel depots, and bomber bases in Rostov, Krasnodar, or Volga regions. Russian civilians near industrial and military infrastructure will face growing safety hazards and air-defense responses, while the Russian Air Force will be forced to adjust basing and sortie patterns, raising operating costs. Strategically, sustained refinery disruptions will tighten Russian diesel and jet-fuel exports, erode Moscow’s fiscal cushion, and slowly degrade its strike capacity against Ukraine. Confirmation would be additional documented fires or shutdowns at major Russian energy assets or damage at airbases; disconfirmation would require either a clear Ukrainian strategic pause or markedly improved Russian interception rates preventing impact.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign shifting to energy and refinery war
- Recent Ukrainian claim of major damage to Taneko refinery’s ELOU-AVT-7 unit (52% capacity)
- Mass Ukrainian drone attack on Rostov region and strike on Yeisk airfield
- Ukrainian emphasis on strategic strikes to offset Russian artillery and manpower advantages