# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strikes Likely to Re-Attempt Hits on Russian Refineries and Airbases

*Issued Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 3:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-17T15:10:36.514Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-18T15:10:36.514Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Central Russia, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Urals Crude, Diesel cracks (Europe), Russian domestic fuel prices, Russian airline equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25282.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to attempt follow-on long-range drone strikes against Russian refineries and airbases, building on the reported hits in Yaroslavl and Rostov. Russian rear-area air defenses and civilian populations near energy and aviation hubs will experience heightened alarm and potential localized disruptions. Persisting attacks erode Russia’s internal sense of sanctuary and raise Moscow’s incentive to escalate retaliatory targeting of Ukrainian cities and industry. Confirmation would include verified explosions or fires at Russian refining or air facilities beyond the front; a sudden Ukrainian pause in deep strikes or credible reports of severe drone shortages would undermine this outlook.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian attacks on Yaroslavl oil refinery and Rostov air base
- Trend: Ukrainian long-range drones eroding Russia’s internal sanctuary and energy resilience
- Pattern of reciprocal deep-strike campaigns in recent days