# [7D] Ukraine Sustains Strategic Drone Campaign on Russian Refineries and Airbases Over Next Week

*Issued Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 9:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-17T09:10:44.346Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-24T09:10:44.346Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 69% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Yaroslavl Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Other Russian energy hubs (Samara, Volgograd, Black Sea region), Eastern Ukraine frontlines
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries (Yaroslavl/Slavneft-YANOS and similar large facilities), Russian military transport aircraft and helicopters, Russian domestic fuel distribution networks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25264.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to maintain a tempo of long-range drone strikes targeting at least one major Russian refinery or airbase every 48–72 hours. The operational aim will be to keep a portion of Russia’s refining capacity offline, force reallocation of air-defense assets, and gradually degrade Russian military aviation readiness. If this tempo holds, Russian fuel logistics to the front and civilian confidence in rear-area safety will erode, increasing pressure on the Kremlin to escalate or absorb losses. Confirmation would be recurring fires or shutdowns at multiple refineries (beyond Yaroslavl) and repeated attacks on airlift hubs; denial would be a sustained lull due to Ukrainian stockpile limits, Western pressure, or improved Russian defenses.

## Drivers

- Systematic Ukrainian targeting of Russian refining and logistics as economic warfare
- Multiple, closely spaced strikes on Yaroslavl and Rostov airbase showing capability and intent
- Emerging trend: Ukrainian long-range drones eroding Russia’s internal sanctuary and energy resilience