# [24H] Renewed Ukrainian Drone Waves on Russian Refineries and Rostov Airbase Likely Overnight

*Issued Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 9:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-17T09:10:44.346Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-18T09:10:44.346Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 68% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Yaroslavl Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Central and Western Russia, Eastern Ukraine (due to knock-on logistics effects)
**Affected Assets**: Russian airbases (Rostov-on-Don North and similar facilities), Russian refineries (Slavneft-YANOS and other high-capacity plants), Russian air-defense coverage and radar networks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25256.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one more drone wave against Russian refining capacity and the Rostov airbase within the next 24 hours while battle damage is being assessed and Russian air defenses are stressed. The operational focus will remain on Yaroslavl and potentially other large refineries or airlift hubs in western Russia, exploiting demonstrated reach and vulnerabilities. Another successful hit would deepen Russian logistical strain and signal that internal territory is now an active battlespace, forcing Russia to divert air-defense assets away from the front. Confirmation would be Russian regional governors reporting UAV downings and new fires at energy or air facilities; denial would be 24 hours of no reported air-defense activity or incidents deep inside Russia.

## Drivers

- Multiple, repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Yaroslavl refinery in rapid succession
- Confirmed hit on Rostov-on-Don North airbase with aircraft and helicopters reportedly damaged
- Emerging trend: Ukrainian long-range drones eroding Russia’s internal sanctuary and energy resilience
- Zelensky explicitly framing these operations as a joint, ongoing deep-strike campaign