# [24H] Hormuz Crisis and Houthi Strikes Propel Brent Above $115 and Widen Product Cracks

*Issued Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 3:11 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-16T15:11:03.646Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-17T15:11:03.646Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf region, Europe, Asia-Pacific importers
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Urals Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, ICE Gasoil and middle distillate cracks, Tanker freight indices (e.g., TD3C, TD20)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25179.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to trade sustainably above $115/bbl as the combination of an Iranian-affected Hormuz chokepoint, Houthi attacks on Saudi sites, and confirmed supply disruptions reinforces scarcity fears. Urals already trading above Brent suggests acute dislocation in non-Gulf supplies, pushing refiners and traders to bid up alternative barrels. Product cracks, especially for diesel and jet, will widen further as buyers hedge against potential Saudi or Hormuz outages. Confirmation would be sustained intraday Brent prices >$115, a persistently elevated Urals–Brent reversal, and rising ICE gasoil crack spreads; denial would be a swift diplomatic signal reducing closure fears or a surprise release of strategic stocks.

## Drivers

- Urals crude quoted at $111.7/bbl, over $4 above Brent
- Reports of an effective Hormuz blockade and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy hubs
- U.S. Energy Secretary confirming Iran conflict has removed energy from the market
- Iran-aligned weaponization of maritime chokepoints