# [7D] Global Diesel Prices Surge Further as Russian and Saudi Supply Constraints Converge

*Issued Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 6:04 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-13T18:04:57.371Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-20T18:04:57.371Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Europe, United States, Latin America, Middle East importers, South and Southeast Asia
**Affected Assets**: NY Harbor ULSD, ICE Gasoil, Refining equities, Shipping and trucking sectors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24803.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, global diesel benchmarks are likely to post another leg higher as continued Russian refining attacks, political pressure on Kyiv, and the extended Saudi East–West pipeline outage tighten effective supply. Europe and parts of Latin America will feel the squeeze first through higher wholesale prices and refining margins, while the US faces political fallout from record diesel prices despite blaming Ukraine. Tightness will stimulate opportunistic exports from Asia and potentially push some developing economies into fuel-rationing or subsidy-stress scenarios. Confirmation would be widening diesel crack spreads and reports of new import tenders from vulnerable economies; denial would require unexpected Russian refinery recovery or coordinated release of product from strategic stocks.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Russian counter-strikes on Ukrainian fuel nodes
- Saudi East–West pipeline outage constraining flexibility of global crude flows
- Trump’s focus on record diesel prices highlighting acute tightness