# [24H] Trump Pressure on Kyiv Temporarily Stalls New Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries

*Issued Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 6:04 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-13T18:04:57.371Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-14T18:04:57.371Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 55% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Ukraine, United States, European Union
**Affected Assets**: ICE Gasoil futures, NY Harbor ULSD, Russian Urals product exports, European refining margins
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24795.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to pause or slow the tempo of high-visibility strikes on Russian diesel refineries while it gauges the political cost of defying Trump’s public demands. This will ease immediate upward pressure on refined product risk premia but will not reverse the structural damage already inflicted on Russian refining capacity. European diesel cracks and US ULSD futures may soften intraday on perceptions of reduced future outages, though physical tightness will remain. Confirmation would be a short-term lull in deep-rear refinery attacks or Ukrainian officials signaling "coordination" with Washington; denial would be new high-profile strikes on Russian refineries despite US political criticism.

## Drivers

- Repeated Trump statements pressuring Ukraine to halt refinery and diesel infrastructure strikes
- Ongoing Ukrainian drone strike on Slavyansk oil refinery indicating operational capability
- High political sensitivity in Kyiv to U.S. support and domestic U.S. fuel prices