# [24H] Houthi Rocket and Drone Fire Intensifies Around Bab el-Mandeb Within 24 Hours

*Issued Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 6:04 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-13T18:04:57.371Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-14T18:04:57.371Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Yemen, Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Southwestern Saudi Arabia, Eritrean coast
**Affected Assets**: Container shipping via Suez, Saudi crude exports through Red Sea ports, Insurance for Red Sea shipping, VLCC and product tanker charter rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24789.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Expect increased Houthi/Sanaa rocket, missile, and drone launches toward Bab el‑Mandeb approaches and nearby Yemeni frontlines in the next 24 hours as they consolidate their claimed control of the strait and adjacent islands. Commercial shipping will face higher near-term risk of near-miss or harassing fire, prompting more rerouting and naval escorts by regional and Western fleets. This will harden military postures on both Saudi and possibly Egyptian sides of the Red Sea, raising miscalculation risk around any misidentified vessel. Confirmation would include new strikes on Saudi or coalition positions near the strait or publicly reported close calls with merchant vessels; denial would be a sudden Houthi ceasefire statement coordinated with Oman or Iran.

## Drivers

- FLASH alert that Houthis claim control of Bab el-Mandeb, Perim Island, and Hanish Archipelago
- Reports of new Houthi offensive push toward Taiz after reaching Bab el-Mandeb
- IRGC calls for proxy attacks on regional oil facilities and Houthi missile strikes on King Khalid Airbase