# [7D] Saudi Air Campaign Against Houthis Widens Along Red Sea, Raising Bab el-Mandeb Risk

*Issued Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 7:45 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-13T07:45:02.415Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-20T07:45:02.415Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Yemen, Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Western Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Djibouti
**Affected Assets**: Red Sea Container Traffic, Suez-Linked Oil and Product Flows, Maritime Insurance in Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Critical Infrastructure on West Coast
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24742.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Saudi air operations against Houthi positions are likely to intensify along axes that threaten Red Sea shipping routes, including coastal missile, drone, and radar sites. As Houthis attempt to contest the airspace and demonstrate deterrence, they may increase missile and drone launches toward commercial shipping and Saudi infrastructure, raising the risk of miscalculated strikes near Bab el-Mandeb. This multi-front contest will complicate naval route planning, especially for ships already rerouting from Hormuz tensions, and could effectively fuse Red Sea and Gulf insecurity into a single maritime threat complex. Confirmation would include repeated Saudi strikes on coastal Yemeni sites and new Houthi launch attempts at sea lanes; denial would require rapid, externally brokered de-escalation or a Saudi decision to confine strikes inland.

## Drivers

- Reports of Saudi Air Force widening multi-front air assault on Houthis
- Attempted Houthi shoot-down of Saudi jet over Sanaa
- Emerging trend: Hormuz and Red Sea crises converge into multi-actor contest over energy corridors