# [7D] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strike Drone Campaign to Additional Russian Refinery Cluster

*Issued Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 7:45 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-13T07:45:02.415Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-20T07:45:02.415Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 68% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Volga Region (Samara, Ulyanovsk), Central Russia (Ryazan), Southern Russia, Black Sea and Baltic export terminals
**Affected Assets**: Russian Refining Complex, Diesel Export Flows to Europe and Africa, Russian Budget Revenues from Export Duties, Global Middle Distillate Markets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24741.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 7 days, Ukraine is likely to target at least one additional Russian refinery or major oil/petrochemical facility beyond Slavyansk-EKO and Nizhnekamsk, likely in another region such as Samara, Ryazan, or Bashkortostan to showcase reach and impose nationwide cost. The operational goal will be to force Russia into expensive air-defense densification across a vast energy network and to erode refined product exports that fund the war. Military-strategically, such strikes may drive Russia to retaliate more brutally against Ukraine’s remaining generation and storage assets, increasing civilian hardship. Confirmation would be credible reports of drone-induced shutdowns or fires at new Russian refining sites >500 km from Ukraine; denial would be visible political or technical constraints on Ukraine’s drone campaign.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: mutual deep-strike drone campaigns turn rear areas into contested battlespace
- Recent successful hits on distant Nizhnekamsk industrial hub and Slavyansk-EKO refinery
- Ukrainian doctrinal emphasis on targeting Russian war-sustaining infrastructure