# [24H] Further Live-Fire Incident in Strait of Hormuz Likely as IRGC Tests Boundaries

*Issued Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 7:45 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-13T07:45:02.415Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-14T07:45:02.415Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 69% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Gulf, Coastal Iran, United Arab Emirates, Oman
**Affected Assets**: Crude Oil Tankers, LNG Carriers, US Navy Fifth Fleet Assets, Shipping Insurance for Gulf Routes, VLCC and Suezmax Charter Rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24733.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Following the projectile strike on a vessel and attack on an Iranian ship near Hengam/Qeshm, at least one additional close-approach, warning fire, or drone overflight incident involving IRGC or proxy forces and commercial or naval vessels in or near Hormuz is likely in the next 24 hours. The most exposed ships are tankers and LNG carriers flagged to US partners or using Western insurers. Such contact incidents will raise the operational risk calculus for US and allied naval commanders and may trigger tighter ROE and more aggressive escort patterns. Confirmation would be new UKMTO/coalition advisories on suspicious approaches or minor damage events; denial would be a conspicuous halt in IRGC aggressive rhetoric combined with reduced patrol visibility.

## Drivers

- Recent projectile strike on transiting vessel in Hormuz
- Attack on Iranian commercial vessel with casualties near Hengam/Qeshm
- Daily brief: IRGC strike on vessel and increasingly combative rhetoric toward US presence