# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drones Likely to Re-Strike Russian Energy Infrastructure

*Issued Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 7:45 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-13T07:45:02.415Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-14T07:45:02.415Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 72% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Tatarstan, Southern Russia, Black Sea region, Volga Federal District
**Affected Assets**: Russian Refined Product Exports, Urals Crude Differentials, Diesel and Gasoline Swaps (Europe), Russian Domestic Fuel Supply, Russian Air Defense Assets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24732.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to launch at least one additional deep-range drone attack on Russian refineries, oil depots, or petrochemical complexes within 24 hours, seeking to build on the momentum at Slavyansk-EKO and Nizhnekamsk. Targets will likely be high-value but relatively poorly defended nodes in southern Russia or the Volga region. This will incrementally constrain Russian refined product exports and force Moscow to divert additional air defense assets away from the front, complicating its own strike campaigns. Confirmation would be fresh fires or emergency shutdowns at Russian energy sites beyond normal accidents; denial would be a sudden public Ukrainian political restraint signal or clearly failed launches without impacts.

## Drivers

- Confirmed drone strikes and fires at Slavyansk-EKO refinery and Nizhnekamsk petro hub
- Emerging trend: mutual deep-strike drone campaigns into rear infrastructure
- Ukrainian pattern of exploiting successful strike profiles with rapid follow-on attacks