# [7D] Saudi Greenlights Major Ground-Air Offensive Toward Marib and Bab el-Mandeb

*Issued Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 1:48 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-12T01:48:11.315Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-19T01:48:11.315Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Marib Governorate, Taiz and Red Sea Coastal Yemen, Western and Southern Saudi Arabia, Bab el-Mandeb Strait
**Affected Assets**: Saudi Ground Forces, Yemeni Government-Aligned Forces, Red Sea Shipping Lanes, Saudi Oil Infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24603.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Saudi Arabia is likely to convert its stated readiness into a large-scale offensive combining intensified airstrikes with ground operations by allied Yemeni forces to blunt Houthi advances near Marib and pressure their positions along the Red Sea coast. The campaign will seek to degrade Houthi missile launch capacity and contest Houthi control of Perim/Mayun Island and adjacent coastal areas, but will face stiff resistance and risk sustained cross-border strikes. Confirmation would be formal Saudi announcements of an operation, plus evidence of expanded ground deployments and coordinated air-ground targeting; a contrary scenario would emerge if Riyadh faces U.S. or internal pressure to avoid widening the war and instead prioritizes negotiations.

## Drivers

- Saudi statement of readiness for major Yemen offensive
- Houthi consolidation of Bab el-Mandeb and large Red Sea coastal advance
- Repeated Houthi missile strikes on Saudi airbases and East–West pipeline