# [24H] Russian Strikes on Zaporizhzhia Steel Plant Lift European Steel Premia and Iron Ore Bids

*Issued Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 1:48 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-12T01:48:11.315Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-13T01:48:11.315Z (23h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, European Union, Turkey, Global Seaborne Iron Ore Routes
**Affected Assets**: European HRC Steel, Steel Slab and Billet, Iron Ore Futures (SGX, Dalian), Coking Coal
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24600.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the coming 24 hours, news of disrupted output at Zaporizhzhia and pressures on Kryvyi Rih/Kamianske are likely to support higher European steel premia and firmer bids for seaborne iron ore and coking coal. Traders will reassess Ukraine’s export capacity for semi-finished and flat steel products, shifting some demand toward EU and Turkish mills and tightening regional supply. Confirmation would be rising Northern European HRC premia and increased spot inquiries for slab/billet, along with a modest uptick in iron ore futures; a contrary case would involve quick confirmation that damage is limited and alternative Ukrainian plants can compensate.

## Drivers

- Confirmed missile impacts on Zaporizhzhia Metallurgical Plant
- Reports of coordinated strikes on multiple Ukrainian steel hubs and water supplies
- Trend note: concern over widening European steel premia and raw material support