# [30D] BRICS and Allied States Exploit Energy Turmoil to Promote Non-Dollar Trade Mechanisms

*Issued Friday, September 11, 2026 at 5:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-11T17:31:50.737Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-11T17:31:50.737Z (30d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 55% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Russia, China, India, Iran, South Africa, Gulf states
**Affected Assets**: USD dominance in oil trade, CNY, INR, and other local currencies in energy contracts, Gold and central bank reserves composition, Payment systems and messaging networks (e.g., SPFS, CIPS)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24561.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next month, BRICS members and aligned states such as Russia, Iran, and potentially Gulf partners will intensify public and practical efforts to settle more energy trade in non-USD currencies or alternative payment systems, citing US sanctions and shipping disruptions. They will pitch this as a resilience move against Western financial weaponization, experimenting with local currencies, gold-linked instruments, or BRICS clearing arrangements. While scale will remain modest initially, the political signaling will deepen fragmentation in the energy-finance nexus. Confirmation would include new non-dollar energy contracts, BRICS communiqués foregrounding payment alternatives, and pilot clearing systems; denial would require key players prioritizing immediate dollar liquidity over strategic diversification.

## Drivers

- US Treasury’s upcoming sanctions on a major Iran bank
- Russia–South Africa and BRICS summit discussions on alignment
- Trend: Multi-front gray war driving concerns about dollar dependence
- Energy disruptions underscoring vulnerability of current trade systems