# [24H] Brent and Dubai Crude Likely Spike 5–10% on Bab el-Mandeb and Saudi Pipeline Blows

*Issued Friday, September 11, 2026 at 5:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-11T17:31:50.737Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-12T17:31:50.737Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf region, Europe, East Asia, India
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, Murban and Arab Light official selling prices, VLCC and Suezmax freight indices, Oilfield services and tanker equities, Airline and petrochemical stocks sensitive to fuel costs
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24544.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, benchmark crude prices such as Brent and Dubai are likely to rise by 5–10% as traders fully price in simultaneous Houthi control of Bab el‑Mandeb and damage to Saudi’s East–West pipeline. Record VLCC freight rates from the Gulf of Oman to China and heightened war risk premiums will amplify the move by tightening effective supply to Asia and Europe. The psychological impact of losing redundancy around both Hormuz and the Red Sea will drive speculative and hedging flows into crude and product markets. Confirmation would be a sharp rise in Brent front-month and time spreads, plus widening of freight-sensitive benchmarks; denial would require rapid Saudi statements demonstrating minimal pipeline disruption and credible naval assurances for Red Sea shipping.

## Drivers

- FLASH and WARNING alerts on East–West pipeline projectiles and fires
- Multiple alerts: VLCC freight to China hits record highs amid route strains
- Houthis seizing Mayyun Island and ship-monitoring infrastructure in Bab el-Mandeb
- Trend: Global energy system strained by converging Gulf, Red Sea, and Russian disruptions