# [24H] Saudi Air and Naval Strikes on Houthi Bab el-Mandeb Positions Likely Within 24 Hours

*Issued Friday, September 11, 2026 at 5:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-11T17:31:50.737Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-12T17:31:50.737Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Horn of Africa coastal states, Gulf region
**Affected Assets**: Saudi East–West Pipeline, Yanbu export terminal, Red Sea tanker traffic, Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, Tanker and war risk insurance, Saudi infrastructure and defense equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24539.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Saudi Arabia is likely to launch limited but high-intensity air and naval strikes against newly consolidated Houthi positions around Mayyun (Perim) Island and the adjacent Red Sea coast in the next 24 hours. Targets would include radar, anti-ship positions, and logistics nodes threatening the Bab el‑Mandeb corridor. This would aim to re-establish deterrence after the East–West pipeline strike and Houthi seizure of ship-monitoring infrastructure, but risks Houthi missile retaliation deeper into Saudi territory. Confirmation would come via satellite-tracked air sorties, reported strikes on Perim or coastal batteries, or Saudi MoD communiqués; denial would be a visible Saudi diplomatic push for maritime deconfliction without new strikes.

## Drivers

- FLASH and WARNING reports of Houthis seizing Mayyun/Perim Island and ship-monitoring tower
- Projectile strikes and fires on Saudi East–West pipeline pumping stations
- CENTCOM threat level CRITICAL and ongoing Houthi–Saudi cross-border strikes
- Israeli official publicly ranking Bab el-Mandeb as more dangerous than Hormuz