# [24H] Saudi Air and Missile Retaliation on Houthi Positions Around Bab el‑Mandeb

*Issued Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-11T11:31:22.995Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-12T11:31:22.995Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Yemen Red Sea coast, Saudi Arabia, Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, Horn of Africa littoral
**Affected Assets**: Red Sea shipping lanes, Regional port infrastructure (Mokha, Hodeidah), Saudi export terminals at Yanbu, Regional airspace usage and overflight routes
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24513.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Saudi forces are likely to intensify air and possibly limited missile strikes on Houthi positions on Perim/Mayyun Island, Dhubab, and along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in the next 24 hours. Riyadh will seek to demonstrate that full Houthi control of the Bab el‑Mandeb and attacks on the East‑West pipeline carry immediate military costs. This response risks collateral damage to coastal infrastructure and fishing communities while doing little to fully dislodge entrenched Houthi forces in the short term. Confirmation would include additional Saudi strike reports beyond Mokha airport targeting coastal artillery, radar, and suspected anti‑ship missile sites; disconfirmation would be an observable pause in Saudi air operations paired with urgent diplomatic outreach.

## Drivers

- Houthi seizure of Perim Island and Dhubab, consolidating Bab el‑Mandeb control
- Confirmed Houthi damage to Saudi East‑West pipeline
- Recent Saudi airstrikes on Houthi‑held Mokha airport
- CENTCOM theater assessment at CRITICAL with rapid deterioration along maritime chokepoints