# [24H] Brent Holds Above $105 With Intraday Spikes Toward $115 on Chokepoint Panic

*Issued Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 5:36 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-10T17:36:04.485Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-11T17:36:04.485Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 83% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Gulf States, Europe, East Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude Futures, WTI Futures, Oil Services Equities (OIH, major drillers), Airline Equities, Emerging Market Oil Importer Currencies (INR, TRY, PKR)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24428.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Brent crude is very likely to remain anchored above $105–107 and see repeated intraday spikes pushing toward the $112–115 range as traders price dual risks at Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb. Options skews will steepen and volatility will rise as hedging demand from refiners and shippers intensifies. A close above $110 would signal markets are starting to price not just risk but a non-trivial probability of physical disruption. Confirmation would be widened Brent time spreads, surging call option volumes, and higher tanker insurance premia; denial would be a rapid diplomatic signal or operational assurance that narrows spreads and brings Brent back toward double digits.

## Drivers

- Brent already surging above $107 on Iran–US confrontation
- IRGC claiming Hormuz blockage and US blockade redirecting 96 vessels
- Houthi consolidation over Mokha, Mayun, Hanish Islands tightening Bab el‑Mandeb