# [7D] Ukraine Likely to Expand Deep Strike Campaign Against Russian Energy and Port Logistics

*Issued Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-10T11:09:31.203Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-17T11:09:31.203Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 78% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil product exports via Black Sea and Caspian, Pipeline and rail logistics in southern Russia, Insurance for Russian port facilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24378.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct further long-range drone or missile attacks against Russian energy, naval, or port infrastructure beyond Novorossiysk and Makhachkala, seeking to stretch Russian air defenses and raise Moscow’s logistical costs. Russia will respond with intensified strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, deepening a tit-for-tat coercion cycle centered on economic nodes rather than frontlines. This escalatory pattern will heighten risks to Black Sea, Caspian, and possibly Baltic energy logistics while reinforcing the narrative of economic warfare. Additional confirmed hits on Russian ports, refineries, or gas processing plants would confirm; a coordinated Western push to constrain Ukrainian targeting of Russian territory, or a Russian domestic political backlash to such strikes, could slow the tempo.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk warships and oil storage
- Repeated hits on Makhachkala oil port and Urengoy gas plant unit
- Emerging trend: mutual deep-strike drone and port strikes in the Russia–Ukraine war