# [24H] Brent Crude and European Gas Likely to Add 3–7% on Red Sea and Hormuz Stress

*Issued Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-10T11:09:31.203Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-11T11:09:31.203Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Europe, Middle East, Global oil-importing economies
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, ICE TTF Natural Gas, European power futures, Carbon (EUAs), Tanker and liner equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24373.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude and TTF European gas prices are likely to extend their recent gains by another 3–7% intraday as traders reprice the combined risks around Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz. Energy and shipping equities with Middle East exposure will see outsized volatility, while European power and carbon markets absorb spillover from surging gas. Confirmation would be a sustained bid in front-month Brent and TTF with elevated implied vol; a strong public reassurance from key Gulf producers paired with tangible traffic normalization in Hormuz would moderate or reverse the move.

## Drivers

- Brent already pushed above $100/bbl
- European gas at highest since December 2022
- Houthi gains along Red Sea and reduced Hormuz transits