# [24H] Brent Likely to Hold Above $100 as Markets Price Sustained Gulf and Russian Energy Risk

*Issued Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-09T17:09:57.102Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-10T17:09:57.102Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf region, Europe, East Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, Refined products (diesel, fuel oil, jet), Tanker freight rates (VLCC, Aframax)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24283.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to remain above $100/bbl, with intraday spikes of $2–4 as traders absorb the combined shock of US–Iran tanker warfare and Ukrainian strikes on Russian gas and refining assets. Risk premia will be driven by the threat to Hormuz flows, uncertainty over Russian gas reliability, and the chance of follow-on strikes. This will pressure refinery margins, support backwardation in crude curves, and intensify political debates over fuel subsidies and strategic stock draws. Confirmation would be continued high implied volatility and sustained war-risk insurance surcharges; denial would require a credible de-escalation signal from both Washington and Tehran.

## Drivers

- Oil reported near or above $100
- US destruction of multiple Iranian oil tankers and sinking of M/T Riesco
- Iranian strikes on tankers off Iraq and UAE
- Ukrainian attacks on Novy Urengoy and Kirishi refinery outages
- Emerging trend of simultaneous escalations in Gulf and Russia–Ukraine theaters