# [24H] Follow-On Iranian Missile or Drone Strikes on Jordanian Bases Likely Within 24 Hours

*Issued Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:14 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-08T23:14:47.973Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-09T23:14:47.973Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Jordan, Iran, Northern Red Sea, Levant, CENTCOM AOR
**Affected Assets**: Patriot and THAAD interceptor inventories, U.S. forward-based aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti and Prince Hassan bases, Regional commercial aviation routes over Jordan and Red Sea approaches, Insurance costs for Aqaba-area port and logistics facilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24185.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Expect at least one additional Iranian kinetic action—shorter-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or heavy drones—against U.S.-linked sites in Jordan within 24 hours, though likely smaller than the initial salvo. The primary aim will be to show persistence and domestic resolve without forcing immediate U.S. strikes on Iranian homeland command nodes. This will keep U.S. and Jordanian air defenses at maximum readiness, further depleting Patriot and other interceptor stocks. Confirmation would be fresh launches from western or central Iran toward Jordan or adjacent airspace; denial would be a full 24-hour gap in launches combined with de-escalatory Iranian messaging.

## Drivers

- Dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles already fired at Muwaffaq Salti, Aqaba and other Jordan targets
- Iranian leadership explicitly linking retaliation cadence to U.S. attacks on tankers
- Pattern in past crises (e.g., Ain al-Asad strike) of at least two-wave retaliatory signaling
- No evidence yet of a ceasefire channel or de-escalation mechanism