# [30D] Russia’s Loss of Su-35 Fighters Weakens Air Superiority but Spurs Drone Reliance in Ukraine War

*Issued Monday, September 7, 2026 at 8:51 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-07T20:51:41.403Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-07T20:51:41.403Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Eastern Ukraine, Western Russia
**Affected Assets**: Defense aerospace supply chains (Russian and global), Drone and counter-drone technology markets, NATO air-defense planning and procurement
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24002.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over 30 days, the collision and loss of Su-35S jets near Kursk will marginally reduce Russia’s high-end fighter availability, leading Moscow to lean more heavily on ground-based air defenses, cheaper drones, and older aircraft for frontline missions. While not war-changing on their own, these losses underscore Russia’s finite modern air fleet and may constrain its ability to contest Ukrainian air operations over certain sectors. In response, Ukraine is likely to further exploit drone and precision-strike tactics, accelerating the shift to high-tech, lower-risk engagements. Confirmation would be lower observable Su-35 sorties and increased drone/missile usage in Russian operations; denial would be evidence of rapid backfill by newly produced or redeployed Su-35s.

## Drivers

- Reports of two Russian Su-35S fighters colliding over Kursk
- Trend: sustained shift of Ukrainian and Russian forces to drone warfare
- Russia’s limited production capacity for advanced fighters under sanctions
- EUCOM threat environment and focus on long-range strikes