# [7D] Ukrainian Deep‑Strike Campaign Persists Against Russian Refineries and Fuel Depots

*Issued Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 9:36 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-06T09:36:44.650Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-13T09:36:44.650Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 77% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia (Ryazan and surrounding regions), Western Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe
**Affected Assets**: Russian domestic diesel and gasoline prices, Urals crude differential, Regional oil product trade flows (Baltic, Black Sea), Russian refining equities and bonds
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23770.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Ukraine is likely to continue UAV strikes against Russian refining assets and fuel storage sites similar to the repeated attacks on the 340,000 bpd Ryazan refinery. Kyiv will aim to stretch Russian air defenses, disrupt military fuel logistics, and pressure Moscow’s domestic fuel market, especially ahead of any broader offensive moves. Continued success will elevate regional fuel price volatility in Russia and neighboring states while also encouraging copycat long‑range strike tactics by other actors observing the war. Confirmation would be additional fires or shutdowns at major Russian refineries or depots; denial would be a sustained absence of such strikes coupled with diplomatic progress on a ceasefire.

## Drivers

- Fresh Ukrainian drone strikes igniting Russia’s Ryazan refinery multiple times
- Emerging trend of Ukraine using deep strikes to offset attrition
- Russian focus on multi-axis grinding offensive encouraging asymmetric responses
- Technical feasibility of long-range Ukrainian drone operations