# [24H] Israeli Airstrikes on Southern Lebanon Likely to Expand Beyond Immediate Hezbollah Launch Sites

*Issued Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 6:40 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-06T06:40:57.197Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-07T06:40:57.197Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Lebanon, Nabatieh Governorate, Northern Israel, Golan and Galilee regions
**Affected Assets**: Eastern Mediterranean gas infrastructure risk premia, Israeli shekel (ILS), Lebanese Eurobonds, Regional aviation and tourism sectors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23735.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, the IDF is likely to expand its air campaign from immediate Hezbollah drone launch areas to broader infrastructure in Nabatieh and adjacent districts, including suspected storage and command sites. Civilian-adjacent targets such as unused or dual-use facilities may again be struck to signal cost imposition and complicate Hezbollah’s basing. This will raise the risk of Hezbollah responding with higher-volume rocket fire at northern Israel, driving local evacuations and increased cross-border fire. Confirmation would be additional multi-target IDF strike waves; disconfirmation would be a rapid imposition of de facto quiet following international messaging.

## Drivers

- Recent Hezbollah explosive drone attacks on IDF forces
- Israeli retaliation including destruction of Ghandour Hospital building
- Return of Israeli 'red' evacuation maps for northern communities
- Emerging trend: tightening spiral on Israel–Hezbollah front