# [7D] Ukraine Expands Long-Range Drone Campaign Into Russian Industrial Rear After Ceasefire Ends

*Issued Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 10:21 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-05T10:21:28.012Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-12T10:21:28.012Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Bryansk Oblast, Ryazan Oblast, Tula Oblast, Occupied Luhansk and Donetsk
**Affected Assets**: Russian fuel depots and repair bases, Air defense radars and EW complexes, Rail logistics nodes and warehouses, Civilian infrastructure near military facilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23636.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to intensify long-range drone and missile attacks on Russian rear infrastructure in regions like Bryansk, Ryazan, and Tula once its unilateral ceasefire window closes and diplomatic efforts stall. Targets will likely include fuel depots, repair bases, radars, and logistics hubs, continuing the pattern of strikes on Kartushyn, Zlynka, Sokolohirsk, and EW complexes near Pogar. This retaliatory escalation will seek to impose costs on Russia’s war economy and demonstrate that Kyiv will not accept a one-sided bombardment of its industrial base. Confirmation would be a renewed wave of Ukrainian drones or missiles hitting Russian territory; a breakthrough diplomatic arrangement curbing deep strikes on both sides would counter this scenario.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets in Bryansk and occupied Luhansk
- Sustained emerging trend of mutual long-range drone warfare
- Russia’s intensified campaign against Ukrainian heavy industry and logistics
- Domestic Ukrainian political need to respond after unilateral restraint is exploited