# [24H] Russia Continues Deep-Rear Strikes on Ukraine Despite Announced Kyiv Ceasefire

*Issued Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 10:21 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-05T10:21:28.012Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-06T10:21:28.012Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian air defense missile stocks, Rail and logistics infrastructure, Ukrainian power and fuel depots, Steel and metals production assets, Civilian commercial real estate (malls, warehouses)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23626.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Russian forces are likely to maintain or modestly increase missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian industrial plants, logistics hubs, and urban centers despite Kyiv’s front-wide ceasefire order. Moscow will exploit Ukrainian rules of engagement that restrict proactive responses, both to degrade industrial capacity and to signal contempt for U.S.-brokered diplomacy. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in cities like Dnipro, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv oblast will deepen, straining Ukrainian air defenses and public morale. Confirmation would be new salvoes on industrial or commercial targets reported by Ukrainian officials; a pause in strikes timed to U.S. envoy movements would weaken this forecast.

## Drivers

- Recent documented triple ballistic strike on Kamet-Steel in Kamianske
- S8000 Banderol cruise missile and drone waves against malls and warehouses
- Emerging trend: Russia shifts to industrial-economic targeting under cover of ceasefire
- Kremlin escalatory pattern in response to diplomatic openings