# [24H] Brent Crude Likely to Test or Briefly Break $100 on Gulf Strike Fallout

*Issued Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 1:07 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-03T13:07:15.537Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-04T13:07:15.537Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Europe, Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gulf shipping insurance premia, U.S. 10-year Treasuries, EURUSD, JPY, Energy and defense equities (S&P Energy, global defense contractors)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23389.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to trade into or modestly above the $100/barrel level as markets price in direct Iranian strikes on U.S. bases and Israel’s explicit threats to Iran’s energy grid. Even with Hormuz flows temporarily stabilized under U.S. naval escort, the perception of structural war risk and potential targeting of Iranian infrastructure will sustain backwardation and a strong call option bid. This will pressure energy‑importing currencies, lift U.S. Treasury yields via inflation expectations, and support defense and energy equities. A sustained Brent print above $98 with elevated implied volatility would confirm; a rapid, news‑driven de‑escalation statement from Washington or Tehran that knocks Brent back below $95 would challenge this outlook.

## Drivers

- Brent reported at $97.29 on Gulf fears
- Iranian strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and UAE
- Israeli threats to hit all Iranian energy infrastructure
- Hormuz flows normalized only via extraordinary U.S. naval escort surge