# [24H] Russian and Ukrainian Strikes to Cut Power and Heat for Tens of Thousands Around Odesa and Ternopil

*Issued Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 12:45 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-03T00:45:10.663Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-04T00:45:10.663Z (23h from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 72% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Odesa region, Ternopil region, Khmelnytskyi region
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian civilian energy infrastructure, Humanitarian logistics (fuel, generators), Local healthcare facilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23333.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Continued Russian missile and drone attacks near Odesa’s thermal power plant and strikes such as the Geran-4 hit on Ternopil will likely disrupt electricity and heating for tens of thousands of civilians within 24 hours. Emergency services will be stretched between fire response, grid repair, and civilian shelter management, particularly in urban areas hosting IDPs. This will increase reliance on diesel generators and humanitarian assistance and deepen civilian fatigue and psychological stress. Confirmation would be Ukrainian utility reports of outages and emergency rationing, along with expanded generator and fuel appeals; disconfirmation would be Russian strikes avoiding grid nodes despite prior patterns.

## Drivers

- Recent Russian strikes around Odesa, including near a thermal plant
- Geran-4 drone strike on Ternopil and fires in Khmelnytskyi district
- Trend of Russia targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure