# [30D] Emerging De-Facto Anti-U.S. Energy Bloc of Russia, Iran, and Select Partners to Solidify

*Issued Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 3:43 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-02T15:43:24.665Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-02T15:43:24.665Z (30d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 61% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Eurasia, Key Asian importers
**Affected Assets**: Shadow fleet tanker markets, Non-dollar payment systems (CIPS, barter, crypto usage), Discounted Russian and Iranian crude blends, Compliance risk for Asian refiners and traders
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23284.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, Russia and Iran are likely to more explicitly coordinate energy and sanctions-evasion strategies, potentially drawing in smaller partners, to form a de-facto bloc positioning itself as a counterweight to U.S.-dominated energy and financial systems. This could involve shared shipping fleets, shadow insurance, joint marketing to sanction-tolerant buyers, and increased non-dollar settlement, particularly with Asian partners wary of U.S. leverage. Such alignment will complicate enforcement of Operation Economic Outcast and reinforce narratives of a fragmented global energy order. Confirmation would be concrete announcements, leaked agreements, or observable integration of logistics and finance between Russian and Iranian exporters; sustained isolation of their efforts without meaningful coordination would undercut this outlook.

## Drivers

- Emerging Iran–Russia missile and drone collaboration
- U.S. drive to sever Iran from global economy and oil markets
- Shared exposure to Western sanctions and incentive to pool resources
- Trend: weaponized energy and finance in great-power rivalry