# [24H] Ukraine to Continue Deep-Strike Drone Attacks on Russian Refineries and Airfields

*Issued Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 3:43 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-02T15:43:24.665Z (34m ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-03T15:43:24.665Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Southern Russia, Occupied Ukrainian territories, Black Sea region, European energy-importing states
**Affected Assets**: European diesel futures, Fuel oil markets, Urals/Brent differential, Russian rail and aviation fuel logistics, European power utilities with Russian exposure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23265.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch additional drone or missile strikes against Russian refineries, fuel depots, or airbases, building on the successful KINEF refinery shutdown and strikes on Millerovo and Yeysk. Kyiv aims to degrade Russia’s logistical depth, limit fuel supplies for military operations, and sustain psychological pressure inside Russia’s rear. This will keep Russian air defenses stretched and force Moscow to divert resources to refinery protection, with knock-on effects on fuel exports. Confirmation would be fresh reports of fires, explosions, or shutdowns at Russian energy or aviation facilities; a sudden, multi-day lull in Ukrainian deep strikes would contradict this forecast.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Ukrainian drone strike fully halting Russia’s KINEF refinery
- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Millerovo, Yeysk, Donetsk, Bryansk
- Trend: Russia and Ukraine normalize very-high-tempo strategic drone warfare
- Trend: Weaponized energy infrastructure as central battleground