# [30D] US–Venezuela Energy Axis Undercuts Russian and Iranian Leverage in Global South

*Issued Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 3:46 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-02T03:46:46.539Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-02T03:46:46.539Z (30d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Latin America, United States, Sub-Saharan Africa (competing for investment), South and East Asia (importers)
**Affected Assets**: Venezuelan Oil Production Capacity, US Gulf Coast Refining System, Russian and Iranian Market Share in Emerging Economies, Latin American Diplomatic Alignments
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23222.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next month, visible ramp-up of US–Venezuela oil cooperation will start to shift diplomatic alignments in parts of Latin America and the broader Global South, where Caracas positions itself as an alternative supplier to sanctioned states. This will dilute Russian and Iranian narratives of Western isolation and reduce their leverage over swing importers that can access Venezuelan crude instead. However, it may also give Caracas more domestic breathing room, complicating Western efforts on democracy and human rights. Confirmation would include new multilateral energy forums or MOUs featuring Venezuela and US allies; denial would come from a breakdown in the deal due to political or compliance disputes.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: US–Venezuela energy alignment recasts sanctions leverage
- US Energy Secretary’s active engagement in Caracas
- Deal to develop 17 Venezuelan oil fields advancing
- Need to offset Russian and Iranian supply risks