# [7D] Ukrainian Deep‑Strike Campaign on Russian Refineries and Ports Expands in Scope

*Issued Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-02T00:09:23.006Z (37m ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-09T00:09:23.006Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Black Sea region, Baltic region, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and export terminals, Global diesel and gasoline supply chains, Russian air‑defense deployments, Insurance for Russian‑linked shipping and infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23158.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Ukraine is likely to increase the tempo and geographic spread of drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries, export ports, and logistics hubs as part of a strategy to stretch Moscow’s air defenses and war economy. Targets will likely include facilities in the Black Sea and Baltic regions, as well as inland refineries previously struck, aiming to impose repair costs and undermine Russia’s claim that 90% of damage is already fixed. These attacks will force Russia to divert SAM systems away from the front and fortify industrial areas, modestly affecting global refined product flows and further entrenching sanctions‑driven trade reorientation. Confirmation would be repeated strikes or attempted strikes on Russian energy infrastructure beyond current hotspots; denial would be a sustained lull in Ukrainian long‑range attacks due to stockpile or political constraints.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: Ukraine weaponises Russia’s hinterland and airspace to stretch war economy
- Emerging trend: Ukraine intensifies asymmetric strikes on Russian energy and port infrastructure
- Recent drone attempts on St. Petersburg and other deep‑rear locations
- Putin’s public emphasis on refinery repairs highlighting vulnerability