# [30D] Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Campaign on Russian Energy and Export Ports Likely to Intensify

*Issued Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 6:14 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-01T18:14:26.980Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-01T18:14:26.980Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Northwest Russia (Ust-Luga and Baltic ports), Black Sea coastal Russia, Ukraine, Bordering NATO states (Poland, Romania, Baltics)
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery and export capacity, Global diesel and naphtha supplies, Baltic and Black Sea shipping routes, Russian domestic fuel prices
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23139.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 30 days, Ukraine is likely to escalate its asymmetric drone and missile campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and export ports, building on recent attacks like the strike on the Novatek Ust-Luga complex. Kyiv will prioritize refineries, oil terminals, and Black/Baltic Sea export nodes, seeking to constrain Russia’s war-financing and logistics while forcing Moscow to divert air-defense assets from the front. This campaign will increase fire and explosion risks in Russian industrial zones, may impact global fuel markets if large facilities are impaired, and will heighten Russian pressure on NATO over drones launched or transiting near allied airspace. Confirmation would be multiple new successful or near-miss attacks on Russian refineries and terminals; a significant Ukrainian arms shortfall or Western political pressure to limit cross-border strikes would dampen this trajectory.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of Ukraine expanding strategic strikes on Russian energy and export infrastructure
- Recent successful strike on Novatek-Ust-Luga complex
- Ukraine’s doctrine of targeting Russian logistics and economic enablers
- Continued Russian bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure incentivizing reciprocal escalation