# [24H] Brent Crude Holds Above $90 With Intraday Spikes Toward $95 on Hormuz War Risk

*Issued Monday, August 31, 2026 at 2:38 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-31T02:38:57.478Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-01T02:38:57.478Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 78% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil markets, Gulf exporters, Major importers (EU, China, India), United States
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Energy equities (integrated majors, tankers), Airline equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/22887.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to trade sustainably above $90/bbl with high intraday volatility and repeated tests of the $93–95 range as traders price in elevated disruption risk from the U.S.–Iran confrontation. Reports of further strikes, sirens, or near‑misses on shipping will trigger quick upside spikes, while any credible de‑escalation rhetoric will see equally sharp pullbacks. This volatility will strain hedging strategies for airlines and refiners and begin to feed inflation expectations into rate‑sensitive assets. Confirmation would be persistent high implied volatility in Brent options and widening Dubai–Brent spreads; denial would be a rapid retrace below $88 on clear signals of U.S.–Iran restraint.

## Drivers

- Iran strikes U.S. assets and threatens Hormuz amid regional sirens and flight cancellations
- Brent already reported above $90 on initial escalation
- U.S. discussion of maritime blockade and weekly oil sanctions on Iran
- Gulf emergency posture and perceived shipping risk