# [7D] Russia to Curtail Gasoline and Diesel Exports as Domestic Fuel Shortages Intensify

*Issued Friday, August 28, 2026 at 4:43 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-28T16:43:45.649Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-04T16:43:45.649Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 69% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, EU, Turkey, North Africa, Latin America
**Affected Assets**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads, Urals and other Russian export grades, Freight rates for product tankers, Agricultural input costs in Russia and importers
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/22599.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Russia is likely to formally restrict gasoline and possibly diesel exports—via quotas, temporary bans, or informal pressure on refiners—to alleviate internal shortages created by Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. Domestic sectors such as agriculture, logistics, and the military will be prioritized, while export customers in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia face tighter supply and higher prices. Strategically, this reconfigures refined product trade flows, benefits non-Russian exporters, and undercuts Russia’s image as a reliable energy supplier even for friendly states. Confirmation would be an official export curb announcement or a marked drop in product exports reported by monitoring services; denial would be continued or higher export volumes despite persistent refinery outages.

## Drivers

- Reuters reports Russian gasoline output at 70% of domestic demand
- Ukrainian drones hitting 21 energy sites including Luhansk TPP and Kstovo refinery halt
- Ukraine claiming up to 80% disruption in some Russian export components
- Historical precedent of Russian fuel export restrictions during domestic shortages