# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drones Likely to Hit Additional Russian Refineries Within 24 Hours

*Issued Friday, August 28, 2026 at 4:43 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-28T16:43:45.649Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-29T16:43:45.649Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Ukraine, Black Sea, EU
**Affected Assets**: ICE Gasoil futures, Brent Crude, Urals crude differentials, Russian domestic fuel markets, European diesel refining margins
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/22590.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Expect at least one further Ukrainian long-range drone strike attempt on Russian refinery or fuel logistics nodes within 24 hours, building on recent successful attacks that cut gasoline output to 70% of domestic demand. The primary impact will be incremental damage and operational disruption rather than a new step-change in output, but each hit amplifies Russian internal fuel stress and military logistics friction. Strategically, repeated successful strikes normalize deep attacks inside Russia and force Moscow to divert air defenses and repair capacity from the front, while lifting refined product and crude risk premia. Confirmation would come from Russian regional authorities reporting fires or shutdowns at refineries or major fuel depots; denial would be 24 hours without credible reports of attempted or successful strikes on energy infrastructure.

## Drivers

- Reuters reports Russian gasoline output down to 70% of domestic demand after Ukrainian drone attacks
- Ukrainian officials citing deep disruption to Russian exports and Novorossiysk operations
- Emerging trend: drone warfare industrializes and disperses across the Russia–Ukraine battlespace
- Recent successful strike damaging a Tu-95 bomber at Engels-2 airbase deep inside Russia