# [24H] Ukraine Poised for Additional Deep-Strike Drone Attempts on Russian Refineries

*Issued Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:43 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-28T10:43:24.949Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-29T10:43:24.949Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Yaroslavl Oblast, Volga region, Russia, Southern Russia, Occupied Ukrainian territories reliant on Russian fuel
**Affected Assets**: Russian diesel and gasoline exports, Urals crude differential, European diesel crack spreads, Russian domestic fuel logistics
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/22563.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt further long-range drone strikes against Russian oil refineries or fuel depots beyond Yaroslavl, focusing on high-throughput facilities in the Volga or Black Sea hinterland. The goal is to sustain pressure on Russia’s military fuel supply and export capacity after repeated hits on Slavneft-YANOS. Successful strikes would incrementally reduce Russian refined product output and force Moscow to reallocate air-defense assets away from the front. Confirmation would be new reported explosions or fires at Russian refining sites, while a complete absence of cross-border drone reports would challenge this forecast.

## Drivers

- Eighth reported Ukrainian strike on Slavneft-YANOS in Yaroslavl this year
- Zelensky’s public framing of a campaign against strategic bombers and fuel infrastructure
- Pattern of Ukrainian FPV and long-range drone evolution and extended reach