# [30D] Drone Warfare Likely to Spread Across Non-State Actors in Latin America and Africa

*Issued Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 2:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-27T02:49:10.258Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-26T02:49:10.258Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 55% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Colombia, Broader Latin America, Sahel region, Lake Chad basin
**Affected Assets**: Police and military facilities, Critical infrastructure in rural conflict zones, Emerging counter-UAS technology markets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/22270.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 30 days, the FARC’s high-profile explosive drone swarm in Colombia and growing availability of armed CH-4 drones in Chad will likely encourage copycat adoption of low-cost UAV attack tactics by insurgent and criminal groups in Latin America and the Sahel. Initial manifestations will be small-scale strikes on police stations, checkpoints, or rival gangs, aiming for psychological shock and media impact rather than mass casualties. This diffusion will challenge state security forces unprepared for aerial threats and could spur regional arms races in counter-UAS systems. Confirmation would be at least one new non-state drone attack outside Colombia and Mali; denial would entail rapid and effective suppression or deterrence of UAV use by security forces.

## Drivers

- FARC’s multi-drone attack on a police station in El Tambo, Cauca
- Deployment of armed CH-4 drones at Abéché base in Chad
- Global trend of rapid non-state adoption of commercially available UAVs