# [7D] Global Diesel and Jet Fuel Spreads Widen as LUKOIL Outage Meets Hormuz Disruption

*Issued Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 6:55 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-26T18:55:33.381Z (41m ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-02T18:55:33.381Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Europe, West and Central Africa, Middle East, Latin America, South Asia
**Affected Assets**: Diesel (ULSD) futures, Jet fuel prices, Gasoline spreads, Clean product tanker rates, Nigerian crude and product exports
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/22133.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within a week, diesel and jet fuel crack spreads are likely to widen sharply as the combination of Russian refinery outages and Hormuz-linked export bottlenecks tightens global refined product balances. European, African, and some Latin American importers will pay higher premiums and scramble for alternative supplies, increasingly turning to Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and U.S. Gulf Coast exports. Freight rates for clean product tankers will rise, and governments with fuel subsidies will face budgetary pressure and potential social unrest. Confirmation would be visible increases in ULSD, gasoline, and jet fuel spreads versus crude, and reports of emergency procurement or subsidy adjustments; denial would require rapid restoration of Russian capacity or a faster-than-expected ramp‑up from Dangote and other alternative sources.

## Drivers

- All main LUKOIL refineries in Russia offline after Ukrainian strikes
- Dangote refinery driving seven‑fold surge in Nigerian product exports
- Hormuz shutdown choking key refined product and crude flows
- Trend of Russia-Ukraine conflict targeting strategic infrastructure