# [24H] Brent and TTF Gas Likely to Spike 5–10% on Hormuz Chokepoint and Qatar LNG Crash

*Issued Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 6:55 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-26T18:55:33.381Z (32m ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-27T18:55:33.381Z (23h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 85% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Africa
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI, TTF Gas, JKM LNG, European diesel (ULSD) futures, Energy equities (EU and US majors), Shipping and tanker equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/22122.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude and European TTF gas prices are likely to rise by 5–10% as traders fully price in the near‑total collapse of Qatari LNG exports and effective tanker paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel and gasoline cracks will widen on fears of both Gulf supply disruption and Russian refined product shortfalls after LUKOIL’s outages. This will boost energy equities and safe‑haven assets while weighing on energy‑intensive European industries and emerging markets reliant on LNG imports. Confirmation would be visible price gaps at market open, rising implied volatility, and widening time spreads; a counter‑outcome would require rapid evidence of restored escorted transits or surprise alternative supply announcements (e.g., U.S. or Nigerian product surges) calming markets.

## Drivers

- 96% collapse in Qatar LNG exports amid Hormuz shutdown
- Oman’s halt of US‑facilitated tanker escorts
- All major LUKOIL Russian refineries offline after Ukrainian strikes
- Warnings of Iran’s fuel reserves near depletion