# [24H] Ukrainian Drone Campaign Sustains Strikes on Russian Refineries Beyond Perm Hit

*Issued Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 9:15 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-08-25T21:15:19.233Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-08-26T21:15:19.233Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia (Perm Krai, Far East, Volga basin), Ukraine, EU energy-importing states
**Affected Assets**: European diesel cracks, Urals crude differentials, Russian domestic fuel prices, Rail and logistics equities in Russia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/21764.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine or Ukraine-linked actors are likely to attempt at least one additional deep-strike drone operation against Russian energy or logistics infrastructure, building on the major damage at the Perm refinery and the Amur gas-chemical fire. Target selection will favor refineries, fuel depots, or rail chokepoints perceived as weakly defended, aiming to compound Russia’s domestic fuel stress and psychological sense of vulnerability. This will keep Russian air defenses on high alert and encourage Moscow to expand its coercive decree-driven mobilization of private infrastructure protection. Confirmation would be Russian or local reports of drone interceptions or impacts on fuel or logistics assets beyond the front; disconfirmation would be a complete absence of such incidents despite favorable weather and prior tempo.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian-linked drone strikes crippling 80% of Perm refinery capacity
- Large fire at Russia’s Amur Gas-Chemical Complex
- Emerging trend: Russia pivots to coercive homeland defense under drone threat
- Western–Ukrainian co-development of advanced strike and AI capabilities